Skip to content

Retail

Retail, consumer and leisure: separating routine sales from informative trades

Why routine matters

Retailers, carmakers, hotel and leisure groups pay part of executive compensation in shares, and many insiders sell on a regular schedule. Cohen, Malloy and Pomorski (2012, Journal of Finance) split trades into routine ones, made by insiders who trade in the same calendar month year after year, and opportunistic ones. In their US sample, routine trades have essentially no predictive power; the information sits in the opportunistic trades.

Contrarian buying

Rozeff and Zaman (1998, Journal of Finance) find that insider buying rises after weak returns and in value stocks. Consumer cyclicals move between those states with the economy, so a purchase after a sharp fall matches the documented pattern. A sale after a rally is harder to read: Lakonishok and Lee (2001) find no predictive power in insider sales.

What these studies leave out

None of these studies isolates retail or leisure, and most rely on US data. On this site, filing cards keep the insider's original title and link to the regulatory document when the source provides one, which helps check whether a trade belongs to a recurring pattern. The results of the site's method are on the performance page.