InsidersTradesSigma
From the first backtest to today's proof. Every number comes from the single source of truth, never varnished. The ship gates, the known biases and each version's deflated Sharpe are published as-is, including the August 2026 point-in-time correction that deliberately revised the published figures down.
Archived discovery cohort. These figures are not the return of the active V15 ranking.
We score eligible insider purchases, then test whether higher scores predict higher forward returns over a 90-day horizon. The early read: selection beats the eligible baseline.
Train on the past, test on the strictly-later window, roll forward. The discipline that separates a real edge from a curve-fit. The filtered subset wins more often than the raw universe.
The signal is re-scored across dozens of regulators worldwide, not just one. Coverage explodes, but so does the noise: some venues add edge, others destroy it.
The legacy pooled test was negative on the largest venue, so the May 2026 version used a European research universe. The current model supersedes that decision with market-local ranking and evidence-based market weights.
The candidate that cleared every gate goes live. Net of fees, top picks per month, quarterly rebalance. The numbers are good, the confidence interval is wide. We publish both.
A read-only quant review pressure-tests the whole pipeline for look-ahead bias, survivorship, and multiple-testing inflation. It is the kind of scrutiny most strategies never publish.
A signal that once looked spectacular collapsed on the full live cohort, so we retired it, on purpose, even though it lowered the headline. Removing it actually lifted the out-of-sample result.
After a data-mapping fix removed contaminated rows, every headline was re-baked downward. This is where the archived discovery proof landed: a positive in-sample track record, a thin out-of-sample window, and a deflated Sharpe below zero. The current V15 ranking does not inherit this return.
A hedge-fund friend proposed a US micro-cap biotech recipe. Its point-in-time backtest failed. That result applies to the tested recipe, not to every US insider purchase. The current model ranks each market locally and publishes the losing test in full.
A fresh daily-NAV rerun includes capital limits, overlapping positions, costs and risk caps. Risk-adjusted evidence remains too weak, so V15 keeps no return or allocation claim.
An external review found the published backtest consumed information unavailable at signal time (today-dated market caps, latest FX, within-month ranking). We re-measured everything under strict point-in-time discipline and replaced the headline family with the lower, honest one. The selection skill above the eligible pool survives; the old level does not.