195. Capital-feasible NAV rerun
Date: 2026-07-19
Decision
HOLD. No scoring activation, local allocation or marketing return is authorized.
The current V15 product remains a market-local research ranking. The overlapping monthly scenario stays an archived research construction and must not be presented as the return of the active product.
Reproduction
npx tsx --env-file=.env.local scripts/_v13_bakeoff/capital-feasible-nav-2026-07-17.ts
Artifact: scripts/_v13_bakeoff/capital-feasible-nav-2026-07-17.json
Data watermark: 2026-07-19T18:55:02.798Z. Price watermark: 2026-07-17. Yahoo adjusted prices loaded for 233 of 237 selected symbols.
Baseline result
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Initial capital | 10,000.00 EUR |
| Final NAV | 12,839.75 EUR |
| Total return | +28.40% |
| CAGR | +5.83% |
| Sharpe | 0.29 |
| Max drawdown | -19.33% |
| Trades | 392 |
| Win rate | 56.12% |
| Total modeled costs | 819.85 EUR |
Calendar returns: 2022 -9.61%, 2023 +10.40%, 2024 +2.25%, 2025 +15.52%, 2026 through June +8.95%.
Defensive track gate
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Final NAV | 10,996.35 EUR |
| CAGR | +2.18% |
| Sharpe | -0.02 |
| Max drawdown | -20.71% |
| Trades | 360 |
The defensive gate reduces final NAV by 1,843.40 EUR, CAGR by 3.65 points and Sharpe by 0.31. It remains off.
Interpretation
- Result is capital-feasible under the documented three-tranche model, position and sector caps, T+90 exits and 0.6% round-trip cost.
- Risk-adjusted evidence remains too weak for a return headline or allocation promise.
- Performance remains regime-concentrated. One losing calendar year remains present.
- No local market passes the separate
strongevidence gate from audit 193. - Live V15 T+90 track record remains insufficient for a validated return claim.
Next gate
Require more untouched live T+90 outcomes, stronger adjusted-price and delisting coverage, venue-specific execution costs and a repeatable capital NAV before reconsidering marketing return claims.