InsidersTradesSigma
From the first backtest to today's proof. Every number comes from the single source of truth, never varnished. The ship gates, the known biases and the negative deflated Sharpe are published as-is.
We score every insider declaration, then test whether higher scores actually predict higher forward returns over a 90-day hold. The early read: selection beats buying the whole universe.
Train on the past, test on the strictly-later window, roll forward. The discipline that separates a real edge from a curve-fit. The filtered subset wins more often than the raw universe.
The signal is re-scored across dozens of regulators worldwide, not just one. Coverage explodes, but so does the noise: some venues add edge, others destroy it.
The largest venue (US tape) inverts the signal: insider buys there net negative. Rather than hide it, we restrict the live universe to the European venues where the edge survives.
The candidate that cleared every gate goes live. Net of fees, top picks per month, quarterly rebalance. The numbers are good, the confidence interval is wide. We publish both.
A read-only quant review pressure-tests the whole pipeline for look-ahead bias, survivorship, and multiple-testing inflation. It is the kind of scrutiny most strategies never publish.
A signal that once looked spectacular collapsed on the full live cohort, so we retired it, on purpose, even though it lowered the headline. Removing it actually lifted the out-of-sample result.
After a data-mapping fix removed contaminated rows, every headline was re-baked downward. This is where the strategy stands today: a positive in-sample track record, a thin out-of-sample window, and a deflated Sharpe below zero. No varnish.