Features that make clustering less naive
Role alone is not enough. Role plus context is.
Useful clustering features include:
- role seniority score,
- buy versus sell indicator,
- open-market versus non-open-market classification,
- instrument complexity score,
- lag between trade date and disclosure date,
- count of same-issuer insider filings in the prior 30 days,
- abnormal return in the 20 trading days before the transaction,
- issuer size bucket,
- sector bucket,
- earnings-window proximity,
- whether the transaction follows a major price gap.
A simple unsupervised approach, k-means on standardized features or hierarchical clustering on mixed data types, can already separate routine compensation activity from potentially informative discretionary trades. More advanced methods, such as HDBSCAN or Gaussian mixture models, may uncover sparse but interesting clusters, especially in small-cap names where insider behaviour is less homogenized.
The point is not to discover metaphysical truths. It is to stop treating every anonymized Swiss filing as equivalent. They are not.
Intensity scoring, the practical substitute for named-insider tracking
If clustering tells you what kind of event you are looking at, intensity scoring tells you how much attention it deserves.
This is where anonymized data can still earn its keep. A role-level intensity model does not need to know who the insider is. It needs to know whether the event is unusual, discretionary and plausibly informed.
Building an intensity score
A sensible intensity score can be built as a weighted combination of five components.
1. Role weight
Assign higher baseline weights to roles with greater presumed access to operational and financial information.
Illustrative ordering:
- CEO
- CFO
- COO or equivalent senior executive
- Board chair
- Other executive management
- Non-executive director
- Closely associated person, unless linked to a known managerial role
This ranking is not sacred. In some firms, the chair is deeply involved; in others, ceremonial. The model should allow issuer-specific overrides when governance data justify them.
2. Transaction discretion weight
Open-market purchases deserve the highest positive weight. Open-market sales receive moderate weight. Option exercises, grants and vesting-related transactions receive low weight unless accompanied by a clear discretionary hold-or-sell decision.
This principle is well supported by the broader insider-trading literature. Seyhun's work, and later studies across jurisdictions, repeatedly finds stronger predictive content in purchases than in sales, precisely because sales are contaminated by liquidity, diversification and tax motives.
3. Abnormal size weight
Size matters, but only relative to context. In a named regime one might scale by insider holdings. In Switzerland, anonymity blocks that route. The workaround is to scale by issuer-level variables:
- transaction value relative to issuer free-float market cap,
- transaction value relative to median disclosed management transaction size for the issuer,
- transaction value relative to estimated annual executive cash compensation, when public remuneration reports allow rough benchmarking.
This is imperfect. It is still better than treating CHF 200,000 and CHF 20 million as equal expressions of sentiment.
4. Temporal concentration weight
A single filing can be noise. A burst of filings is harder to ignore. If multiple role categories transact in the same direction within a short window, the score should rise. This is especially true when the cluster includes both executives and directors.
Temporal concentration can be measured as:
- number of insider filings in same direction over 7, 14 and 30 days,
- number of distinct role categories involved,
- net buy-sell imbalance by value.
Anonymity weakens person counting, but role diversity remains observable and useful.
5. Event-context weight
The same trade can mean different things depending on timing. A director purchase after a 25 percent drawdown and before a strategy update is not the same as the same-sized purchase after a routine quarter. Likewise, executive sales immediately after lock-up expiry or compensation vesting should be discounted.
A practical event-context layer includes:
- days to or from earnings,
- days to or from guidance changes,
- days to or from financing announcements,
- recent abnormal volatility,
- recent analyst estimate revisions.
This turns a static filing into a contextualized event.