Our cohort read for director-level buys at mid-cap names shows a 54.1% 90-day win rate and a 5.85% average return. That is useful context, and nothing more. It tells you that this role-and-size bucket has historically leaned positive over 90 days. It does not tell you what Horace Mann will do next.
Horace Mann versus Progressive and Allstate
The comparison set matters here because Horace Mann is not a broad-market insurer story. It is a niche franchise built around educators, with auto, home, life, and retirement products. That puts it in the same general insurance lane as larger multiline names, but not in the same competitive weight class. Progressive and Allstate have scale in personal lines that Horace Mann does not. They can absorb more noise, spend more on distribution, and still keep the market’s attention. Horace Mann has to earn it.
That smaller footprint cuts both ways. A niche book can be less volatile, and the market does seem to grant Horace Mann a lower beta than the big personal-lines names. The company also pays a quarterly dividend of $0.36, which works out to a yield around 2.8 percent on the cited share price. That is not a screaming income pitch, but it does give the stock a different holder base than a pure growth or pure turnaround name.
A trailing P/E near 11.8 and a market capitalization around $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion put HMN in a very ordinary valuation bucket for a profitable insurer with a recent guidance lift. That is exactly why the insider sales matter. When a stock is neither cheap enough to ignore nor expensive enough to dismiss, the filing tape can tell you whether management and directors are still leaning in. Here, they are leaning out.
Perry Hines sells, and the form is not subtle
The first filing that matters is the one from Perry G. Hines, a director who sold 3,237 shares on September 3, 2026 at $52.22 each, for about EUR 145,777 in euro-normalised filing value. The same transaction was preceded by a Form 144 notice earlier that month for the same share count, valued at roughly $169,036. Hines was left with 25,117.511 vested restricted stock units. That is a clean, ordinary sale, not a dramatic exit. It is still a sale, and it arrived in a stock that had already been trading near the top end of its recent range.
Donald Carley, the general counsel, sold 2,054 shares on the same date at $52.28 for about $107,383. The market does not need to be told that a general counsel selling into strength is not the same thing as a director trimming a few vested units. Different roles, different incentives, different read-throughs. But the direction is the same, and the timing is the same. That is the point.
InsiderTrades data flags this as a cluster, and the cluster is not a one-off. Five distinct insiders have traded the name in the same direction over the past quarter, and there have been 12 recent declarations. The recent list includes repeated sales by CEO Marita Zuraitis, plus the August 14 sale by director Thomas A. Bradley. When a board and senior management are all moving the same way over a short window, you do not need to overstate it to see the pattern. You just need to respect it.
What the cluster says when the stock is near $50
The stock price matters because insider selling is always relative to price, not just absolute size. HMN closed at $50.94 on September 4 and has recently traded around $50.40 to $50.49, according to the cited market reports. That is below the 52-week high, but not far enough below it to make the sales look like panic or forced liquidity. The shares are still in the same neighborhood where insiders have been willing to part with stock.
That is where the comparison with Progressive and Allstate gets useful again. Bigger peers can often absorb a few insider sales without changing the story, because their scale and liquidity are doing more of the work. Horace Mann does not have that luxury. A cluster at a $2 billion insurer with a niche customer base and a recent guidance lift is a more pointed read than the same pattern at a giant multiline carrier. You are looking at a company where the insider base is small enough that repeated sales are visible, and visible enough to matter.
The market has not punished the stock hard for it. That is the other half of the setup. The shares are not collapsing, which means the market is still giving Horace Mann credit for the earnings beat, the guidance raise, and the broader P&C tailwind. But the insider tape says the people filing the forms are not using this strength to add exposure. They are using it to reduce it.
The score is one thread, not the story
InsiderTrades data gives this cluster a favorable internal read because it was filed by an operating director, sits inside a wide cluster, and was sized at a negligible fraction of market value. The euro-normalised filing value was about EUR 145,777. Those are the ingredients that push the signal higher in our framework. They explain why the filing is on the page at all.
The framework is not the thesis. The thesis is the tension between a supportive insurance backdrop and a board-level group that has been selling into it. Horace Mann’s fundamental score of 71, with a value score of 80 and quality at 63, says the company is not a broken story. It is a functioning one. That is exactly why the insider behavior deserves attention. Selling in a weak name can be noise. Selling in a functioning name after a guidance raise is a different read.
The strategy headline is also worth a glance, but only a glance. Our out-of-sample framework sits on a 90-day holding window with a max position size of 0.08, and the live placeholders are 0.81, 26.4, and 51.5 on the restricted EU venue universe. Those are screening outputs, not a promise about this stock. They help frame why the cluster matters. They do not turn a filing into a trade.
The educator niche still has a case, just not an easy one
Horace Mann’s educator focus is the reason the stock deserves a separate conversation from PGR or ALL. The company sells into a defined customer base, which can support retention and cross-sell. It also means the growth story is narrower. You do not get to hide behind broad market share gains when your franchise is built around a specific professional community.
That niche has helped the company keep a lower beta profile, and the dividend helps anchor the name for holders who want income with some underwriting exposure. But the market is not paying for a sleepy utility-like profile. It is paying for a profitable insurer that just raised guidance and is still exposed to claims trends, pricing discipline, and the path of reinvestment yields. In other words, the stock has to keep earning its multiple.
That is where the comparison with the larger peers matters again. Progressive and Allstate can lean on scale and brand. Horace Mann leans on focus. If the educator franchise keeps producing stable economics, the stock can justify a mid-teens multiple on earnings power. If the growth stalls or the combined ratio slips, the market will not be generous for long. The insider sales do not prove that stall is coming. They do tell you the board is not acting as if the next leg higher is obvious.
What to watch after the September filings
The next thing to watch is whether the selling broadens or stops. One director sale and one general counsel sale can be explained. A cluster of five insiders trading the same direction over a quarter is harder to file away as coincidence, especially when the company has just raised guidance and the stock is still near the low-$50s. If the next filings are more of the same, the market will have to decide whether the insider base is simply monetizing a good run or whether it sees a ceiling the chart has not yet priced.
The second thing is execution. Horace Mann’s Q2 beat and raised outlook are the reason the stock is not already trading like a cautionary tale. If the company can keep core EPS tracking toward the $4.60 to $4.90 range and preserve underwriting discipline while the broader P&C sector remains constructive, the insider sales will look more like opportunistic trimming. If the next quarter shows pressure, the same filings will look better timed than the market would like.
For now, the head-to-head is simple. Progressive and Allstate have the scale. Horace Mann has the niche. The sector has the tailwind. The insiders have been sellers. That is enough to keep the name interesting, and enough to keep you from treating the filings as background noise.
