What the literature says about insider disclosures and timeliness
Markets react quickly when the data are reliable
Academic work on insider trading disclosures has repeatedly found that insider purchases, in particular, contain information and can move prices around disclosure. The exact magnitude varies by market, period, and methodology. The broad point is stable. Timely disclosure matters because the information has value.
In the US, the Form 4 regime has supported a large empirical literature precisely because the data are centralised and timestamped. In Europe, MAR and predecessor regimes have also generated evidence of informational content, but cross-country comparability is often weaker because disclosures are more heterogeneous.
This is where enforcement asymmetry bites investors directly. If one regulator's pipeline produces cleaner and faster publication, the market can incorporate insider information more uniformly. If another jurisdiction's disclosures are slower, patchier, or harder to parse, the informational benefit of the rule is diluted even if the statute looks equally strict.
Enforcement changes behaviour at the margin
There is a second literature, more governance-oriented, showing that disclosure and enforcement shape managerial behaviour. The effect is not magical. Insiders still trade, and some file late. But visible, standardised reporting obligations reduce ambiguity and raise the expected cost of non-compliance.
Again, the practical lesson is not that one should count sanctions and declare victory. It is that a functioning disclosure regime is a system. Deadline, forms, publication rails, auditability, and enforcement all interact.
A T+2 rule with weak infrastructure can underperform a T+3 rule with excellent infrastructure. Equally, a T+3 rule with fragmented publication and uneven sanctions can underperform both. The market does not trade on legal prose. It trades on when information becomes visible.
A workable blueprint for your 162k-filings study
The minimum cleaning protocol
If this article is to compare median lag by regulator using your 162k filings, here is the minimum viable protocol.
Create a regulator mapping table.
Assign each issuer or filing source to SEC, AMF, FCA, BaFin, CONSOB, CNMV, and so on, based on domicile, listing venue, and source feed.
Validate date fields.
Confirm whether transactionDate is execution date, notification date, settlement date, or another event. Confirm whether pubDate is regulator publication timestamp, issuer announcement date, or vendor ingestion date.
Flag impossible chronology.
Keep negative lags in a diagnostics table, but exclude them from headline medians unless you can repair them.
Compute both calendar and business-day lag.
Use jurisdiction-specific holiday calendars where feasible. If not, state that business-day lag is approximated.
Report coverage and exclusions.
Show how many records survive cleaning by regulator. Readers should know whether the final comparison rests on 90 percent of the data or 40 percent.
Add lateness rates.
Median lag is useful. Share filed after the legal deadline is more directly tied to enforcement.
That protocol would let you write a regulation article rather than a forensic note from the database engine.
The chart that would actually answer the question
If you rerun the analysis correctly, the ideal visual is simple:
- one row per regulator,
- median business-day lag,
- p75 lag,
- late-filing share,
- negative-lag share before cleaning.
That final column is not a nuisance. It shows where the data pipeline itself may be weakest. In a dry way, it is also a nice reminder that some regulators are not slower than others, they are merely observed through foggier windows.
What we can responsibly say now
With the current extract, three claims are defensible.
First, the dataset is large enough to support a meaningful regulator comparison once mapped correctly. 162,000 filings is not a toy sample.
Second, the raw result demonstrates substantial data-quality issues that would bias any naive ranking. Negative average lags as low as -181.5 days are disqualifying for headline comparison.
Third, enforcement asymmetry remains the right explanatory frame. Even after cleaning, one should expect practical lag differences across regulators because filing infrastructure, dissemination channels, and sanction visibility differ.
What we cannot responsibly say, yet, is that regulator A has a lower median lag than regulator B in your data. The query does not identify regulators, and the chronology is not clean.
Why this matters beyond compliance trivia
Timeliness changes the value of the signal
Insider transaction data are not merely governance ornaments. They are an information signal. A purchase disclosed promptly can inform price discovery, analyst interpretation, and shareholder oversight. The same purchase disclosed late is still interesting, but less useful. At some point it becomes historical scenery.
That makes enforcement asymmetry economically relevant. If one market's insiders are effectively visible within one or two business days and another market's disclosures drift, the informational playing field is uneven. Researchers will detect different abnormal-return patterns. Investors will build different monitoring habits. Issuers will face different reputational pressure.
The rule is only as credible as the publication path
This is the unglamorous core of the article. Disclosure rules are often discussed as if they are legal abstractions. They are not. They are operational systems. The market experiences them as timestamps.
When a regulator combines a clear deadline, standard forms, central electronic filing, immediate public dissemination, and visible consequences for lateness, the rule becomes credible. When any of those pieces are weak, the deadline starts to look aspirational.
Your extract, accidental though it may be, captures this perfectly. A negative average lag is what happens when the publication path is not yet measured with enough discipline. Before one can judge regulators, one has to judge clocks.
The concrete next step is obvious: rebuild the comparison at the regulator level, not the market field, and publish median business-day lag, late-filing share, and negative-lag diagnostics for the SEC, AMF, and the main MAR supervisors. The open question is the interesting one. Once the data are clean, will the SEC's shorter T+2 rule still dominate on practical timeliness, or will some European authorities prove that infrastructure and enforcement matter more than a single extra day on paper?