{
  "generatedAt": "2026-05-14T20:47:47.482Z",
  "method": {
    "reference": "Cohen, Malloy, Pomorski (2012, JoF) — Decoding Inside Information",
    "filterApplied": "Exclude Insider.tradingPattern == 'routine'",
    "universe": "BUY · cluster≥2 · mid-cap 200M-1B€ · role∈{PDG,CFO,Dir} · pubDelay≤7d · signalScore≥40",
    "returnHorizon": "T+90 days from pubDate+1 close (retail-view)"
  },
  "patternBreakdown": {
    "opportunistic": 73,
    "routine": 85,
    "new": 15,
    "unclassified": 0
  },
  "perPatternStats": {
    "opportunistic": {
      "n": 73,
      "avgReturn90d": 13.706543262616549,
      "winRate": 0.8082191780821918,
      "sharpe": 0.7610317131643077,
      "medianReturn90d": 10.20909607725264
    },
    "routine": {
      "n": 85,
      "avgReturn90d": 48.62052736260003,
      "winRate": 0.8352941176470589,
      "sharpe": 1.6590870981167811,
      "medianReturn90d": 57.85627256917885
    },
    "new": {
      "n": 15,
      "avgReturn90d": -5.623884556283721,
      "winRate": 0.26666666666666666,
      "sharpe": -0.3478048012922834,
      "medianReturn90d": -8.627452263690953
    }
  },
  "withoutFilter": {
    "n": 173,
    "avgReturn90d": 29.184764252299146,
    "winRate": 0.7745664739884393,
    "sharpe": 0.9354978004622497,
    "medianReturn90d": 25.54166581895616
  },
  "withFilter": {
    "n": 88,
    "avgReturn90d": 10.411583975304001,
    "winRate": 0.7159090909090909,
    "sharpe": 0.5438593480983861,
    "medianReturn90d": 6.864032872501762
  },
  "delta": {
    "signalCountDelta": -85,
    "avgReturn90dDelta": -18.773180276995145,
    "winRateDelta": -0.05865738307934831,
    "sharpeDelta": -0.39163845236386363
  },
  "interpretation": {
    "signalsDropped": 85,
    "pctSignalsDropped": 0.4913294797687861,
    "avgReturnUpliftPctPts": -18.773180276995145,
    "winRateUpliftPctPts": -5.865738307934832,
    "sharpeUplift": -0.39163845236386363
  },
  "note": [
    "HONEST FINDING (AMF/FR universe ≠ US CMP-2012 universe):",
    "On this sample, the 'routine' cohort actually outperforms 'opportunistic' on T+90,",
    "likely because the AMF 3-day mandatory disclosure deadline forces predictable cadences",
    "even for legitimate private-info trades, and the small-N FR universe is dominated by a",
    "few high-conviction repeat buyers. The CMP filter as published thus REDUCES alpha on",
    "this dataset rather than amplifying it.",
    "",
    "RECOMMENDATION: keep the classifier (it is a valuable feature for the score) but",
    "consider re-tuning the patternBonus signs (currently -8 routine / 0 new / +12 opp.)",
    "via grid-search on the live retail-return data before relying on the filter in",
    "production. The `excludeRoutineInsiders` flag is shipped opt-in for safety review."
  ]
}