Related-insider signal (MAR Art 19) · 2026-05-19

Context

EU MAR Art 19 obliges PDMRs (persons discharging managerial responsibilities) and the persons closely associated with them to declare their transactions in the issuer's shares. The "closely associated" cohort covers spouses, dependent children, parents living in the same household, trusts where the PDMR is beneficiary or settlor, and legal entities whose managerial responsibilities are discharged by the PDMR. SEC 17 CFR 240.16a-1(a)(2) is the US analogue; CVM 358/2002 Art 11 the BR analogue.

Sample

We extracted all Declaration rows with pdfParsed=true and a non-null signalScore from the 2023-2024 EU + FR window. After deduplication on (amfId, transactionDate) we kept n=4,186 rows.

Detector src/lib/ingest/related-detector.ts runs lexical regexes against insiderFunction + insiderName and emits a coarse kind: spouse, child, parent, trust, holding, controlled, other.

Headline numbers

Cohort	n	Win rate (T+1Y)	Avg return T+1Y
Direct	4,075	46.3 %	+227 %
Related	111	85.4 %	+268 %

CI95 on the related win-rate is wide (Wilson interval ~77.9 % to 90.6 %) because n=111 is small. The delta is robust at p < 0.01, but the magnitude will move with the 28-market reconfirmation.

Backfill on the full DB

Running scripts/_backfill-related-insider.ts --apply on the 577,228 pdfParsed=true rows tagged 120,775 declarations as related, broken down:

Kind	Count
controlled	116,133
trust	3,296
holding	1,238
parent	52
child	31
spouse	25

The high controlled count reflects the very common AMF template "Personne morale liée à la personne de…". The detector is intentionally generous on that wording because the EU regime explicitly requires a distinct declaration whenever the legal entity is controlled by a PDMR.

Scoring impact

signals.ts v12 adds a +5 pts additive bonus on BUY signals when relatedInsider=true. Conservative starting weight pending the OOS bake on the 28-market window. See SCORE_V3_WEIGHTS.relatedInsider.

UI surface

• RelatedInsiderBadge chip rendered on RecoCard, /insider/[slug], /company/[slug].
• /recommendations filter ?onlyRelated=true (also ?relatedInsider=true).
• /api/v1/declarations, /api/v1/signals, /api/v1/recommendations accept ?relatedInsider=true|false.
• Methodology page (FR + EN) gains a "Personnes liées / Closely associated" paragraph anchored on #related-insider.

Caveats

• The sample window is short (2023-2024). A 2015-2026 walk-forward bake-off is the next OOS exercise.
• The detector is lexical · no parsing of free-form notes, so a small share of related filings whose regulator-provided template hides the relationship in narrative text will be missed (false negatives).
• controlled is the dominant kind because the regulator wording is highly templated. We do not lump controlled with spouse/child/trust on out-of-sample analysis · separation by kind preserves heterogeneity.